NAS100 Next Week Outlook: ICT and Smart Money Concepts Analysis

Estimated reading time: 10–12 minutes

NAS100 closed the week around 24,024 after an aggressive selloff that pressed into visible downside liquidity. From an ICT and Smart Money Concepts perspective, the key question for next week is simple: does price continue lower into daily discount zones, or does it retrace into premium before the next sell leg?

This outlook connects closely with broader macro drivers such as interest rates and USD strength. If you are new to this framework, read our guide to rate differentials and FX trends to understand the bigger picture.

Top-Down Market Structure Overview

  • Daily: Bearish bias, rejection from premium supply
  • 4H: Weak structure with continued breakdowns
  • 1H: Strong intraday downtrend, approaching liquidity

The market is currently in a phase where sell-side liquidity is the primary draw, but short-term rebalancing is possible.

Daily Chart Bias: Distribution to Discount

The daily chart shows a clear rejection from the 25,900–26,200 supply zone. This confirms distribution in premium. Price is now trading toward discount, with key support below.

  • Key resistance: 25,900–26,200
  • Current zone: ~24,000
  • Major support: 23,400–22,800

This lower zone represents a high-probability demand area where buyers may respond. As long as price remains below the broken higher-timeframe structure, rallies are more likely to be corrective than trend-changing.

4H Structure: Bearish Continuation With Weak Lows

The 4H chart confirms bearish order flow with multiple breakdowns. Price is currently sitting near a weak low around 23,800, which suggests liquidity below is likely to be targeted.

  • Supply zones: 25,000–25,200 and 25,300–25,450
  • Weak low: 23,800
  • Bias threshold: below 24,500 rallies are likely to be sold

In SMC terms, the market has left overhead inefficiencies and supply that could be revisited before another sell leg. That makes retracement entries more attractive than chasing price at the lows.

1H Execution: Intraday Bearish Trend

The 1H chart shows strong bearish momentum. However, price is extended, meaning better entries will likely come after retracement into premium intraday zones.

  • Immediate resistance: 24,300–24,500
  • Higher resistance: 24,950–25,000
  • Current liquidity: 23,800

Smart money typically sells premium in bearish conditions rather than chasing lows. That makes a rally into 24,300–24,500 one of the most important areas to monitor early in the week.

Liquidity Map for Next Week

Downside Targets

  • 23,800 (weak low)
  • 23,400–23,200 (daily demand)
  • 22,800 (deep liquidity)

Upside Targets

  • 24,300–24,500 (intraday supply)
  • 25,000–25,200 (major supply)
  • 25,300–25,450 (higher resistance if a squeeze develops)

Macro Drivers and Economic Events

NAS100 is highly sensitive to macro factors such as interest rates, inflation, and USD strength. These drivers also heavily influence gold markets—see our gold outlook and technical analysis for comparison.

Key themes to monitor next week include:

  • US inflation-related data
  • GDP and jobless claims
  • Fed speakers and rate expectations
  • Yield moves and broader risk sentiment

High-impact events often trigger liquidity sweeps before directional moves. For that reason, traders should avoid entering in the middle of the range just before major US releases.

Trade Setup 1: Bearish Retracement Sell

Scenario: Price retraces into 24,300–24,500 and rejects from intraday supply.

  • Entry: Bearish confirmation on the lower timeframe after a rejection or market structure shift
  • Invalidation: Sustained acceptance above 24,500
  • Targets: 24,000 → 23,800 → 23,400

This is the preferred setup because it aligns with higher-timeframe bearish structure while improving entry location.

Trade Setup 2: Breakdown Continuation

Scenario: Price breaks below 23,800 with displacement, then retests the breakdown zone from below.

  • Entry: Retest failure or bearish continuation pattern
  • Invalidation: Fast recovery back above the broken low with strong bullish displacement
  • Targets: 23,400 → 23,200 → 22,800

Trade Setup 3: Liquidity Sweep Reversal (Countertrend)

Scenario: Price sweeps below 23,800 or into the 23,400–23,200 demand zone and then reclaims the low with strong displacement.

  • Entry: After bullish CHoCH and a successful retest
  • Targets: 24,000 → 24,500

This is a tactical mean-reversion setup, not a higher-timeframe bullish trend call.

Best Trading Approach

  1. Wait for price to reach meaningful liquidity zones
  2. Avoid trading mid-range
  3. Stay aligned with the higher timeframe bias unless the market delivers a strong reversal signal
  4. Use lower timeframe confirmation before entry

Final Outlook

Base case: bearish continuation after retracement into premium or after a clean breakdown retest below 23,800.

Alternative case: a sell-side liquidity sweep into daily demand followed by a relief rally.

Success next week will depend on patience and execution. Focus on liquidity, structure, and confirmation—not prediction.

FAQ

Is NAS100 bullish or bearish next week?

The higher-timeframe bias remains bearish unless price reclaims key supply zones and holds above them with strong confirmation.

What is the best NAS100 trading strategy next week?

The higher-probability approach is to sell retracements into premium zones or trade breakdown retests with clear confirmation.

Which levels matter most on NAS100?

The main upside resistance sits at 24,300–24,500, while downside targets sit at 23,800, 23,400–23,200, and 22,800.

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